US Equity Indices: Technical Check

February 05, 2016 12:10

Dow Jones Industrial Average [DJI30]

The 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – August 2015 south-run, near 16440-50 region, seems currently restricting the DJI30 bounce from 15450 mark, which if broken can quickly accelerate the index towards 16620 and the 16700 resistance levels. Should the equity gauge continue extending its march beyond 16700, the 50% Fibo, around 16800, is likely an intermediate upside level for the index to test before it could aim for 50-day SMA of 16940 and the 17090 – 17100 horizontal resistance-zone. Meanwhile, pullbacks from the current stats might fetch the gauge to 16130 immediate support before it could drop to 15980-70 region, encompassing 23.6% Fibo level. Given the index downside below 15970, the 15840-35 and the 15650 are likely numbers that it could rest around ahead of re-testing the 15450 mark. Moreover, additional decline below 15450 can make the US equity gauge vulnerable enough to plunge towards August 2015 lows of 15250.

S&P 500 [SP500]

Ever since the S&P 500 dropped below four year old ascending trend-line support, now acting as resistance near 1992, the index plunged to the lowest levels in more than a year; however, 1810-20 horizontal support-zone triggered the gauge's bounce which presently struggles between the 1992 and the 1850 range with oversold RSI favoring the upside than the otherwise case. Should the index broke above the trend-line resistance of 1992, also surpasses the 2000 psychological magnet, it can find multiple resistances within 2045-50 area. Moreover, successful break of 2050 can further propel the index towards 2080 and the 2100 mark before challenging the May 2015 highs of 2135. On the downside, a weekly close below 1850 can fetch the index to re-test 1820-10 region, breaking which it can accelerate the downside to 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its October 2011 to May 2015 upside, near 1730 mark. Given the gauge's inability on the part of the index to hold 1730, it can stretch the southward trajectory to 1685 and the 1630 mark prior to visiting the June 2013 lows around 1560.

Nasdaq [NQ100]

Unlike the DJI30 & SP500, the Nasdaq [NQ100] seems more inclined towards testing the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level of its April 2014 - November 2015 upside, near 4075, clearing which it can drop to more than a year old ascending trend-line support around 4013 – 4010. Should it closes below 4010 and sustains the downside break, the index can be fetched to 3920-15 area, encompassing the 61.8% Fibo, while further south-run below 3915 can make the gauge test August 2014 lows around 3830. Alternatively, the index bounce from the current level can be confined by 38.2% Fibo level of 4230, breaking which 4275 and the 4320 are likely consecutive numbers that it could print. Given the gauge's capacity to surpass 4320, it can rally to 4400 and the 23.6% Fibo, near 4425, before the 100-day and 200-day SMA confluence, near 4455-60, restricts its further north-run.

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