Technical Update - USDCAD, CADJPY, EURCAD and AUDCAD

USDCAD

Following its drop in mid-Sept. towards testing 50-day SMA support near 1.3000 mark, the pair resumed its well established ascending trend to test 1.3450 resistance level, marking 61.8% Fib. retracement level of Jan. 2002 to Nov. 2007 big fall. The pair is now headed for the highest monthly close since June 2004. A sustained move above 1.3450 resistance is likely to continue supporting further near-term up-move for the pair towards its next major resistance near 1.3700 mark with some minor intermediate resistance near 1.3500 and 1.3600 round figure marks. Meanwhile, previous resistance near 1.3350-40 area, now seems to protect immediate downside for the pair. Weakness below this immediate support is likely to be supported by 1.3300 mark and 1.3230-20 support levels. Only a decisive break below 1.3230-20 support area, leading to a sustained weakness below 50-day SMA support, currently near 1.3180 now seems to trigger any meaningful corrective move in the near-term.

CADJPY

The pair once again managed to rebound from an important support near 89.00-88.90 area and now seems to extend the recovery towards a descending trend-line resistance near 90.30 level. This descending trend-line resistance along with a descending trend-line support now seems to constitute towards formation of a bullish Falling Wedge chart-pattern. The pattern, however, is confirmed only once the pair decisively breaks through the upper descending trend-line resistance near 90.30 level. Hence, a decisive strength above this strong resistance is likely to lift the pair immediately towards 90.60-65 intermediate resistance, marked by 38.2% Fib. retracement level of the pair's sharp fall from August highs to the lowest level since Dec. 2012 tested in August. Moreover, the pair is likely continue with its near-term recovery trend towards testing the very important resistance near 91.70-80 region, marking 50% Fib. retracement level. However, should the pair starts giving up its gains and drop back below 23.6% Fib. retracement level support near 89.30 area, it might continue finding support at the lower descending trend-line support, currently near 88.80 level. Only a decisive weakness below 88.80 support level might negate expectations of any near-term recovery for the pair and is likely to pave way for a drop back towards 87.40-30 support region earlier tested in August.

EURCAD

Although the pair has steadily moved higher during the month of September, the up-move seems to be restricted by an ascending trend-line resistance, currently near 1.5140-50 zone. Near-term downside too, is supported by a short-term ascending trend-line, currently near 1.4960-50 area. The combination of the ascending trend-line resistance and support now seems to constitute towards formation of a bearish Rising Wedge chart-pattern, which is likely to be confirmed once the pair breaks below the lower ascending trend-line support near 1.4960-50 zone. A decisive break below this immediate strong support seems to immediately drag the pair towards 1.4850 intermediate support region, before falling further towards its next major support near 1.4600 mark. Alternatively, should the pair continue holding this ascending trend-line support and move back above 1.5100 round figure mark resistance, it seems to make a fresh attempt to retest the very important ascending trend-line resistance near 1.5140-50 region. A decisive strength above this strong resistance now seems to negate the bearish chart-pattern formation, thus paving way for resumption of the previous strong up-move, initially towards 1.5300 mark intermediate resistance and eventually towards 1.5430-50 resistance area marking the highest level since March 2014 tested in August 2015.

AUDCAD

The pair's reversal from a descending trend-line resistance, also coinciding with 50-day SMA, managed to find support near 0.9300 mark, nearing 23.6% Fib. retracement level of August high to Sept. lows fall. From current levels, the pair seems to head back towards 50% Fib. retracement level resistance near 0.9440-50 area. This 0.9450 level resistance also nears the very important confluence comprising of 50-day SMA and the descending trend-line resistance. Hence, a clear strength above this strong resistance is likely to immediately lift the pair towards testing another strong resistance confluence near 0.9515-20 area, comprising of 100-day SMA and 61.8% Fib. retracement level. Meanwhile on the downside, 38.2% Fib. retracement level, near 0.9380-75 level, now seems to protect immediate downside. Failure to hold this immediate support is likely to drag the pair back towards retesting the very important support at 23.6% Fib. retracement level support near 0.9300-0.9290 area.

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