Technical Update - NZDCAD, AUDNZD, NZDCHF and GBPCHF

February 10, 2016 12:22

NZDCAD

Bounce back from 0.9060-40 confluence support, comprising of the lower trend-line support of a descending trend-channel formation on daily chart and 38.2% Fib. retracement level of Aug. to Dec. sharp up-move, lifted the pair back to a strong resistance confluence near 0.9250-60 area, comprising of the upper trend-line of the channel and 23.6% Fib. retracement level. The short-term ascending trend-channel along-with pair's sharp up-move from Aug. 2015 lows seems to form a bullish continuation, Flag chart pattern, suggesting further upside once the pair decisively conquers 0.9250-60 resistance area. Sustained strength above 0.9250-60 resistance has the potential to lift the pair back towards an important resistance near 0.9550-60 area. Meanwhile, reversal from current resistance area and a subsequent weakness below 0.9150 level could force the pair back towards 38.2% Fib. retracement level intermediate support near 0.9060-50 zone. The downfall could further get extended towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, which currently is pegged near 0.8970-50 region.

AUDNZD

After failing to sustain its strength above 200-day SMA, the pair dropped to test an intermediate support near 1.0600 mark. Should the pair fail to hold 1.0600 mark support, it might continue drifting lower to retest the very important psychological mark support near 1.0500 region. Further, a decisive break below 1.0500 mark now seems to increase the pair's vulnerability to extend its near-term weakness towards 1.0320-1.0300 mark, representing 61.8% Fib. expansion level. Meanwhile on the upside, strength above 1.0700 round figure mark might now confront immediate resistance near 1.0780-90 area, marking 23.6% Fib. retracement level of Aug. to Oct. 2015 downfall. Momentum above this immediate resistance might get extended but is likely to be capped at the very important 200-day SMA resistance, currently near 1.0900-1.0920 region, also nearing 38.2% Fib. retracement level. Only a sustained strength back above 200-day SMA might negate any near-term bearish outlook for the pair.

NZDCHF

The pair's reversal from 0.6850-60 strong resistance and a subsequent break below 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMA support, has now dragged the pair back below 0.6500 mark. The pair is currently trading near 38.2% Fib. retracement level of Aug. to Dec. 2015 up-swing. From current levels, should the pair continue trading below 200-day SMA (below 0.6500 mark) it remains vulnerable to test 50% Fib. retracement level important support near 0.6340-20 area. Below 50% Fib. retracement level support is likely to trigger a fresh leg of weakness towards 61.8% Fib. retracement level support near 0.6200-0.6190 area. Alternatively, move back above 200-day SMA might continue to face resistance at 100-day SMA, currently near 0.6550-60 area, and 0.6600-0.6620 confluence region comprising of 50-day SMA and 23.6% Fib. retracement level. Momentum above theses resistance levels should negate any bearish outlook, thus assisting the pair back towards retesting the very important resistance near 0.6850-60 area.

GBPNZD

Even as the pair has managed to hold 61.8% Fib. retracement level support of its Apr. to Aug. up-move, it continues trading below important moving averages and has also broken below a short-term ascending trend-line support. Considering that the pair has failed to register any meaningful recovery from immediate support level, it seems more likely to extend its weakness in the near-term. Hence, from current levels weakness below 61.8% Fib. retracement level support near 2.1550-30 area is likely to get extended towards the pair's next major support near 2.1000 psychological mark. Meanwhile on the upside, strength above 2.1900 round figure mark is likely to confront immediate strong resistance at 50-day SMA, currently near 2.2100 region. Any attempts of conquering 50-day SMA resistance might now be capped at 50% Fib. retracement level resistance near 2.2200-2.2220 area.

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