Technical Update - NZD Pairs

NZDUSD

After falling to a fresh 2015 lows, the pair has managed to register a descent recovery within a short-term ascending trend-channel formation visible on 4-hourly chart. The pair has now cleared its immediate resistance near 0.6590-0.6600 area, marking 23.6% Fib. retracement level of its April to Sept. downfall and from current levels seems to extend its near-term recovery towards testing an important resistance confluence near 0.6660-70 area, comprising of the upper trend-line resistance of the channel and 100-day SMA. Further, a decisive strength above this immediate strong resistance seems to set the stage for continuing the upward trajectory, initially towards 0.6710-20 intermediate resistance before darting towards 38.2% Fib. retracement level resistance near 0.6800 mark. Meanwhile on the downside, 23.6% Fib. retracement level, near 0.6600-0.6590 area, now seems to protect immediate downside. Weakness below this immediate support is likely limited at the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 0.6500 round figure mark. Only a decisive weakness back below 0.6500 mark might negate expectations of any further recovery for the pair, thus making it vulnerable to resume its downward trajectory.

AUDNZD

After failing to hold an important support near 1.1070-60 area, comprising of 100-day SMA and 38.2% Fib. retracement level of April to August up-swing, the pair below a strong support near 1.0930-20 area, which was held since June. Although the pair seems to have found some support at 50% Fib. retracement level near 1.0860-50 region, but considering its break below an important support the pair seems vulnerable to continue drifting lower towards testing its next major support near 1.0750 region, marking 200-day SMA. The fall could further get extended towards 61.8% Fib. retracement level support near 1.0660 level. On the upside, 1.0930-40 area, important support break-point, now seems to act as immediate resistance. A decisive strength above this immediate resistance set the stage for an additional up-move, initially towards reclaiming 1.1000 round figure mark resistance and further towards retesting the very important support turned resistance near 1.1060-70 zone.

EURNZD

Following a consolidation within a rectangular formation on 4-hourly chart, the pair finally broke on the downside to subsequently weaken below 1.7000 mark. Should the pair continue trading below 1.7000 mark, it seems vulnerable to continue drifting lower towards testing its next major support near 1.6800 mark, also nearing 100-day SMA support. Failure to hold this important support is likely to continue dragging the pair in the near-term, towards testing its next support near 1.6300 mark. Alternatively, should the pair manages to hold 1.7000 mark and move back above 1.7050-60 immediate horizontal resistance, it is likely to move higher towards retesting the previous trading range support break-point, now turned immediate strong resistance, near 1.7250-60 region.

NZDCAD

The pair's recovery momentum from its lowest level since Sept. 2013 provided the required boost to lift the pair beyond a very strong resistance confluence near 0.8590-0.8600 area. This important resistance comprised of a descending trend-line resistance extending from March 2015, 100-day SMA and 23.6% Fib. retracement level of the pair's fall from March highs to lower level tested in August. From current levels, the pair clearly seems to continue climbing higher, initially towards 0.8700 intermediate resistance and eventually towards 38.2% Fib. retracement level resistance near 0.8800 mark. Meanwhile, the resistance break-point near 0.8580 level now seems to protect immediate downside for the pair. Even if the pair fails to hold this immediate resistance turned support area, it is likely to find support near 0.8500 mark, which in the near-term seems to act as a firm base for the pair.

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