Technical Update - GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD

GBPUSD

After dropping to the lowest level since Mar. 2009, the pair witnessed minor recovery from near-term oversold conditions. The bounce-back from lower levels, however, seems to confront resistance at a short-term ascending trend-line near 1.4360-70 area. This ascending trend-line resistance, along with another ascending trend-line support near 1.4220 area, seems to constitute towards a short-term bearish Rising Wedge chart-pattern formation on 1-hourly chart. Hence, a decisive break below the lower ascending trend-line support is likely to accelerate the fall back towards 1.4100 round figure mark support. Meanwhile, sustained move back above 1.4300-1.4310 area might continue to face strong resistance at the upper ascending trend-line resistance near 1.4360-70 region. Only a sustained strength above this strong resistance might negate expectations of any further near-term weakness for the pair and assist it to extend the bounce from multi-year lows, beyond 1.4400 round figure mark, towards its next major resistance near 1.4500-20 area.

AUDUSD

On 4-hourly chart, the pair seems to form a bullish reversal, Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern, with the neck-line resistance near 0.7040-50 zone. A clear break-through this important resistance would confirm the pattern, thus opening room for continuation of the pair's upward trajectory in the near-term. Above 0.7040-50 resistance, could easily move back towards testing its next major resistance near 0.7200 level, with 0.7110-20 area acting as intermediate resistance. On the downside, inability to clear its immediate resistance and a subsequent weakness below 0.7020-0.7000 mark might force the pair to retest the very important 0.6950-40 support area, forming shoulder of the bullish pattern. Failure to hold 0.6950 important support might negate the bullish formation, making it vulnerable to extend its downward trajectory back towards 0.6850-40 recent closing lows support.

NZDUSD

On daily chart, the pair seems to have formed a short-term bearish, Double-Top chart pattern near 0.6880-0.6900 strong resistance zone. The pair, however, has managed to find some intermediate support near 0.6400 round figure mark. Hence, from current levels a sustained weakness below 0.6400 mark would confirm the bearish pattern, making the pair vulnerable to drop back towards testing 2015 closing lows support near 0.6250-40 area before extending its weakness further towards 0.6070-60 support, marking 61.8% Fib. expansion level. Meanwhile, strength above 0.6500-0.6520 immediate horizontal resistance is likely to boost the pair back towards its next strong resistance near 0.6700 level, which if conquered seems to assist the pair to head back towards retesting the very important resistance near 0.6880-0.6900 area.

USDCAD

The pair witnessed a sharp profit taking move from the highest level since Apr. 2003, tested in the week gone-by, and is currently trading below 23.6% Fib. retracement level of its up-move from Oct. 2015 lows to multi-year highs. From current levels, the pair seems more likely to extend its near-term corrective move, towards 38.2% Fib. retracement level support near 1.3970 level. The fall could further get extended towards a very strong support near 1.3800-1.3750 region, comprising of 50-day SMA and also nearing 50% Fib. retracement level. On the upside, 1.4150 level now seems to act as immediate resistance. Strength above 1.4150 resistance is likely to be followed by a further up-move, but is likely to be capped at 23.6% Fib. retracement level resistance near 1.4240-50 zone. Only a sustained strength above 1.4240-50 resistance might negate the near-term bearish outlook and lift the pair back above 1.4500 mark, towards the recent daily closing highs resistance near 1.4560-80 region.

Follow me on twitter to discuss latest markets updates @Fx_Haresh