Technical Update - GBPNZD, NZDJPY, NZDCAD and AUDNZD

November 19, 2015 12:17

GBPNZD

Although the pair's near-term corrective move managed to find support near 2.2400 area, it failed to clear an important resistance confluence near 2.3500-2.3510 area, comprising of 50% Fib. retracement level of Sept.-Oct. fall, 100-day SMA and the upper trend-line resistance of a short-term ascending trend-channel formation on 4-hourly chart. The pair subsequently has broken below the lower trend-line support of the channel and from current levels seems vulnerable to continue drifting lower towards testing 38.2% Fib. retracement level support near 2.3260-50 area. On the upside, the ascending trend-channel support break-point, near 2.3440-50 area, now seems to act as immediate resistance. This is closely followed by strong resistance confluence near 2.3500-2.3510 area, which if conquered might negate any near-term bearish expectations, paving way for continuation of the pair's near-term up-move towards testing 61.8% Fib. retracement level resistance near 2.3780-2.3800 zone.

NZDJPY

After moving above 100-day SMA, the pair has been consolidating in a narrow range, forming a bullish Falling Wedge chart-pattern on 4-hourly chart. The pair continues to hold above 100-day SMA and now seems to have confirmed the bullish chart-pattern, suggesting resumption the near-term upward trajectory towards its next major resistance near 82.30-50 area, marking 50% Fib. retracement level of April to August down-leg. Meanwhile on the downside, break-out point of the Falling Wedge also nearing 100-day SMA support near 80.00-79.80 zone, now seems to protect immediate downside. This is followed by another strong support near 79.30-20 area, comprising of the lower descending trend-line support of the wedge and 50-day SMA support. Failure to sustain the break-out momentum and a subsequent drop back below 50-day SMA support now seems to trigger resumption of the prior weakening trend, back towards testing a very important support near 77.00-76.90 area, also coinciding with 23.6% Fib. retracement level.

NZDCAD

Although the pair failed to capitalise on its move beyond 200-day SMA for the first time since May 2015 and reversed from 50% Fib. retracement level of March to August downfall, it has still managed to hold an important support confluence near 0.8585-80 area, comprising of 100-day SMA and 23.6% Fib. retracement level. From current levels, should the pair extend its bounce from an important support confluence and moves back above 0.8700 mark immediate horizontal resistance, its seems to make a fresh attempt to retest 200-day SMA resistance, currently near 0.8850-60 area, with intermediate resistance at 38.2% Fib. retracement level near 0.8800 mark. Alternatively, should the pair trades and sustains its weakness below 0.8600-0.8580 important support, it is likely to drift back below 0.8500 mark towards testing 0.8470-50 important horizontal support.

AUDNZD

After dropping to a five-month low in late October, the pair has managed to recover and move back above 200-day SMA. However, the pair now seems to confront a serious resistance in clearing an important resistance confluence near 1.1000-1.1010 region, comprising of 100-day SMA and 61.8% Fib. retracement level of its corrective move witnessed from Sept. highs to Oct. lows. Moreover, the pair seems to be in the process of forming a bearish Rising Wedge chart-pattern on daily chart. Should the pair manage to decisively conquer this immediate resistance, it seems all set to resume its upward trajectory towards testing its next major resistance near 1.1200-1.1220 horizontal zone. However, should the pair fail to clear this strong resistance and decisively weaken below 1.0910-1.0900 support, comprising of 50% Fib. retracement level and the lower trend-line support of the bearish pattern, it would confirm the bearish pattern. This could possibly open room for drop back towards re-testing 200-day SMA support, currently near 1.0780 level with 38.2% Fib. retracement level, near 1.0815-10 area, acting as intermediate support.

Follow me on twitter to discuss latest markets updates @Fx_Haresh

Admirals An all-in-one solution for spending, investing, and managing your money

More than a broker, Admirals is a financial hub, offering a wide range of financial products and services. We make it possible to approach personal finance through an all-in-one solution for investing, spending, and managing money.