Technical Update - EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD and USDCHF

February 02, 2016 12:32

EURUSD

Extending its near-term range-bound move, the pair continues to face difficulty in clearing 100-day SMA resistance, currently near 1.0970 region, and now also coinciding with 38.2% Fib. retracement level of Aug. 2015 highs to Dec. 2015 lows down-leg. Also on the downside, the pair has managed to hold the lower end of the trading range support at 23.6% Fib. retracement level near 1.0800-1.0790 region. In order to determine the near-term trajectory, the pair needs to decisively break through this trading range. A sustained strength above 1.0970 immediate resistance confluence seems to lift the pair immediately towards 1.1100-15 resistance area, marking 50% Fib. retracement level. Alternatively, a decisive weakness below 1.0800 mark support has the potential to drag the pair back towards 1.0650-30 intermediate horizontal support before the drops further towards retesting 1.0500 mark in the near-term.

USDCAD

The pair extended its sharp profit-taking move to test 1.3900 mark, nearing 50-day SMA support. The pair has now recovered a bit to move back above 1.4000 psychological mark. In order to register further recovery, the pair needs to sustain above 1.4050 level, which if cleared is likely to boost the pair towards 1.4140-50 horizontal resistance. Momentum above 1.4150 resistance is likely to be followed by a further up-move towards next major resistance at 23.6% Fib. retracement level resistance near 1.4240-50 zone. Meanwhile, weakness back below 1.4000-1.3980 immediate support might continue finding support at 50-day SMA, currently near 1.3900-1.3880 region. However, should the pair fail to hold the 50-day SMA support it could immediately drop to test a very important support around 1.3800 mark, nearing 50% Fib. retracement level.

AUDUSD

On 4-hourly chart, the pair has moved within a short-term ascending trend-channel formation and is now trading close to the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 0.7040 level. Rebound from current support level and a subsequent strength above 0.7060 horizontal resistance is likely to reaffirm the channel, lifting the pair immediately towards 0.7120-25 intermediate support before extending its up-move towards testing the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 0.7200 mark. Alternatively, a decisive break below the trend-channel support is likely to drag the pair immediately towards 0.7000 psychological mark. Subsequent weakness below 0.7000 mark might force the pair back towards testing 0.6920-0.6900 mark support and downfall could further get extended towards its recent closing lows support near 0.6850 region.

USDCHF

Extending its upward trajectory within a short-term ascending trend-channel formation on 4-hourly chart, the pair is now trading back above 1.0200 mark. From current levels, the pair seems to extend the up-move towards testing the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 1.0280-1.0300 zone with 1.0240 level acting as intermediate resistance. On the downside, sustained weakness below 1.0200-1.0190 immediate horizontal support is likely to get extended towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 1.0125-1.0120 area. Only a decisive break below this important trend-channel support might negate continuation of the pair's near-term upward trajectory.

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