Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and USDCHF

EURUSD

Following a break below a short-term ascending trend-channel, the pair extended its downward trajectory and dropped below 1.0800 mark important support. From current levels the pair seems to continue drifting lower towards testing an intermediate support near 1.0650 level, marking a short-term descending trend-line support. However, considering that the daily RSI, reading below 30, has already dipped into oversold territory, the pair could possibly witness some short-covering bounce from 1.0650 support area. Any bounce-back is likely to confront immediate resistance at the 1.0800 support break-point, which if conquered could provide some additional momentum to lift the pair back above 1.0900 mark. However, considering the pair's break below a well-established short-term ascending trend-channel, any short-covering bounce is likely to be limited and the pair seems more likely to extend the near-term weakness towards testing its next major support near 1.0560-50 area.

GBPUSD

The pair continues to oscillate within a short-term descending trend-channel formation, visible on daily charts and the current reversal from the upper trend-line resistance could possibly drag the pair below 1.5000 important psychological mark support, towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 1.4950 level. On the upside, 1.5180-1.5200 horizontal zone now seems to provide immediate resistance, which is closely followed by an important resistance near 1.5250 region. A sustained strength above 1.5250 strong resistance has the potential to provide the required momentum to lift the pair back towards 1.5480-1.5500 important resistance area, also coinciding with the upper trend-line resistance of the channel. Intermediate resistance on the upside is pegged at 200-day SMA region, currently near 1.5340-50 area.

AUDUSD

Reversal from an important resistance confluence near 0.7370-80 area, comprising of 100-day SMA, a descending trend-line resistance and 50% Fib. retracement level of June to Sept. down-leg, dragged the pair close to retesting the very important 0.7000 psychological mark support. Sustained weakness below 0.7000 mark (0.7000-0.6980 support area) could increase the pair's vulnerability to continue drifting lower, initially towards 0.6900 mark support (earlier testing in Sept. 2015) and further towards testing sub-0.6800 level, represented by 61.8% Fib. expansion level. On the upside, 23.6% Fib. retracement level, also coinciding with 50-day SMA, near 0.7120-30 area now seems to act as immediate resistance on the upside. On a sustained strength back above 50-day SMA, could possibly be aiming back towards retesting the descending trend-line resistance, currently near 0.7330-40 area.

USDCHF

After breaking-through an important resistance near 0.9800 mark, representing a descending trend-line resistance extending through the beginning of 2015, the pair moved back to reclaim parity for the first time since March 2015. The pair is now within striking distance of retesting 1.0100-1.0120 resistance, highs tested in March this year. Should the momentum help the pair in decisively clearing March highs, it seems all set to extend its upward trajectory towards testing its next major resistance near 1.0280-1.0300 zone, marking 61.8% Fib. expansion level. Meanwhile on the downside, 0.9980-60 area seems to restrict immediate weakness. Failure to hold this immediate support could possibly trigger a short-term corrective move, initially towards 0.9820 level support, which could further get extended towards retesting the descending trend-line strong resistance break-point now turned support, currently near 0.9740-30 area. This 0.9740-30 support area might now act as near-term strong support for the pair.

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