Technical Update: EURCHF, GBPCHF, NZDCHF And CADCHF

EURCHF

Even as the EURCHF's rally from 1.0750-60 fueled the pair towards marking the highest level in more than a year, upper-line of the "Rising-Wedge" bearish technical formation, coupled with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its December 2014 – January 2015 downside, around 1.1190 – 1.1200 region, might hold the pair's further up-move captive and could trigger a pullback towards 1.1100 – 1.1090 immediate support-zone. Given the pair drops below 1.1090, it can quickly test the 1.0980 mark before the 1.0900 – 1.0860 broad support-area, including 50% Fibo, 50-day and 100-day SMA, coupled with the support-line of the mentioned technical pattern, give rise to its another bounce. If at all the pair fails to reverse from 1.0860, the bearish formation gets confirmed, indicating the pair's plunge to sub-1.0600 region. On the upside, sustained trading above 1.1200 opens the door for the pair's gradual advance towards the January levels of 1.2000 with 1.1380, 1.1400 and the 1.1800 being intermediate halts.

GBPCHF

Following its bounce from 1.4150-40 horizontal support-region, the GBPCHF managed to print a month's high; though, the pair's up-move seems scaled back by the 50-day SMA, presently at 1.4760, which if broken, may propel the pair to conquer with the 200-day SMA mark, at 1.4810 now, before testing the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level of its May – November up-move, 1.4900. Moreover, sustained trading above 1.4900 enables the pair to rally towards 1.5100 – 1.5110 resistance-zone. Given the pair reverses from the current levels, the 61.8% Fibo, near 1.4490-85 can offer immediate downside support to the pair, breaking which it can test the 1.4485 and the 1.4380 support levels before witnessing the 1.4300 mark. Further, sustained downside below 1.4300 can fetch the pair to re-test the 1.4150-40 important support area, clearing which chances of its plunge to May 2015 lows, near 1.3815, becomes brighter.

NZDCHF

While NZDCHF's recovery from 0.6350-45 helped marking it fresh high for a month, the resistance-line of a possible "Rising-Wedge" bearish technical formation, near 0.6740-50, can continue holding the pair's up-move captive. Should it reverses from the current levels, the 0.6680 can provide nearby support to the pair before fetching it to the pattern support of 0.6630. However, break of 0.6630 confirms the pair's bearish formation and can drag the pair prices down to 0.6500 area, clearing which can extend its southward trajectory towards 0.6440 and the 0.6350-45 support-zone. Alternatively, break of 0.6750 negates the downturn favoring pattern and can fuel the pair to 0.6800 immediate resistance, breaking which 0.6860-70 becomes an important resistance for the pair traders to watch. Given the pair's strength propels it beyond 0.6870, the 0.6930 might act as a small halt during the pair's north-run to 0.7170-80 resistance-zone.

CADCHF

CADCHF's reversal from 0.6800 has been confined within a rectangle formation since a week's time wherein the upper-line of the formation, coupled with the 100-day SMA, seems presently holding the pair's advance around 0.7340-45. If the pair clears the 0.7345, 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its November 2015 – January 2016 advance, at 0.7385, can confine the pair's further up-move, breaking which 0.7475 is likely an intermediate resistance which if broken can open the door for the pair's north-run to 0.7610 and the November highs, nearing 0.7700 resistance mark. Meanwhile, pullbacks from the present level can make the pair witness 50% Fibo level of 0.7270 and the formation support of 0.7210, breaking which 38.2% Fibo, near 0.7150 and the 0.7060 could be the numbers that the pair traders should be aware off. Moreover, pair's sustained downtrend below 0.7060 can trigger fresh round of selling which can fetch it to re-test the January lows around 0.6800 with 0.6980 being a buffer support.

Follow me on twitter to discuss latest markets events @Fx_Anil