Technical Update - EURCHF, EURJPY, EURCAD and EURNZD

October 14, 2015 13:41

EURCHF

The pair once again failed to clear its intermediate descending trend-line resistance and has now dropped back to the lower trend-line support of a short-term ascending trend-channel formation on 4-hourly chart. Should the pair decisively break below the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 1.0900-1.0890, it seems to accelerate the downfall immediately towards 1.0810-1.0800 round figure mark support. Failure to hold 1.0800 mark support might increase the pair's vulnerability to continue drifting lower, initially towards 1.0700 mark intermediate support and further towards testing the very important 200-day SMA support, currently near 1.0610-1.0600 area. Meanwhile, bounce from the lower trend-line support of the channel might continue to be restricted by the short-term descending trend-line, currently near 1.0940-50 area. A decisive break-through this immediate resistance now seems to provide the required momentum to surpass 1.1000 and 1.1050 intermediate resistance levels and test the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 1.1140-50 region.

EURJPY

The pair's strength above 135.00 mark, also representing 38.2% Fib. retracement level of Dec. 2014 to April 2015 down-leg, seems to face a strong resistance at 100-day SMA. Even if the pair manages to decisively move above 100-day SMA, currently near 136.50 level, it is likely to confront a strong resistance near 137.90-138.00 mark. This 138.00 mark resistance comprises of 50% Fib. retracement level and the upper trend-line resistance of a short-term descending trend-channel formation on daily chart. Meanwhile, weakness back below 136.00 round figure mark now seems to drag the pair back towards 135.00 mark. Failure to hold this 135.00 mark support is likely to trigger resumption of the pair's near-term downward trajectory, initially towards 133.30-10 intermediate support and eventually below 23.6% Fib. retracement level support (131.60-50) towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 131.10-131.00 mark.

EURCAD

Although in the near-term, the pair seems to have found support near 1.4600-1.4580 area, representing 38.2% Fib. retracement level of its April to August up-swing, any further up-move beyond 1.4900 mark is likely to face strong resistance near 1.4950 confluence zone, comprising of 23.6% Fib. retracement level and a short-term descending trend-line. Moreover, the combination of 38.2% Fib. retracement level support and the descending trend-line resistance seems to constitute towards formation of a bearish descending triangle. The formation, however, is not complete until the pair decisively breaks below 1.4600 mark strong horizontal support. Immediate downside support is pegged at 1.4700 round figure mark. Meanwhile on the upside, should the pair manages to decisively strengthen above 1.4950 strong resistance, it seems likely to resume its near-term upward trajectory back towards 2015 daily closing high resistance near 1.5400-20 region.

EURNZD

Following a sustained break below 50-day SMA for the first time since Feb. 2015, the pair dropped to test an important support confluence near 1.6850 area. The 1.6850 level support comprises of 100-day SMA and 38.2% Fib. retracement level of April to August up-move. Failure to hold this immediate support is likely to increase the pair's vulnerability to extend its near-term corrective move towards testing its next major support near 1.6340-20 zone, also nearing 50% Fib. retracement level, with intermediate support near 1.6600 horizontal level. Meanwhile, should the pair once again manage to bounce from current important support confluence and manages to climb back above 1.7000 psychological mark, it could possibly extend the bounce in the near-term. Momentum beyond 1.7000 mark is likely to confront resistance at 1.7150-70 area, which if cleared is likely to lift the pair back towards retesting an important resistance near 1.7300 mark, nearing 50-day SMA.

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