Technical Update - AUDUSD, EURAUD, AUDJPY and GBPAUD

AUDUSD

After failing to conquer an important resistance confluence near 0.7370-80 area, comprising of 100-day SMA, a descending trend-line and 38.2% Fib. retracement level of May to Sept. 2015 down-leg, the pair dropped back below 0.7200 mark to nearly test 50-day SMA immediate important support. The pair has managed to recover from sub-0.7200 level and is currently holding comfortably above 0.7200 mark, representing 23.6% Fib. retracement level. Should the pair start trading back below 0.7200 mark and subsequently decisively weaken below 50-day SMA support, currently near 0.7150 level, it seems vulnerable to extend the weakness towards retesting a very important support near 0.7050-40 area. Alternatively, should the pair manages to extend its bounce beyond 0.7250 immediate resistance, it could possibly be aiming back towards retesting the descending trend-line resistance, currently near 0.7330-40 area, which also coincides with 100-day SMA. Further, a decisive break-through this important resistance now seems to set the stage for extending the pair's near-term recovery towards testing its next major resistance near 0.7500 mark, nearing 50% Fib. retracement level.

EURAUD

The pair's rebound from the lower trend-line support of a short-term descending trend-channel now seems to face strong resistance around 50-day SMA region, currently near 1.5750 level. Reversal from an intermediate support and a subsequent weakness below 1.5620-1.5600 immediate horizontal support is likely to continue dragging the pair, initially towards 1.5490-80 support (38.2% Fib. retracement level of April to August up-swing) and eventually towards retesting the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 1.5380-70 zone. Meanwhile on the upside, 50-day SMA might continue to act as immediate resistance, which if conquered is likely to lift the pair immediately towards testing 23.6% Fib. retracement level resistance near 1.5900 round figure mark. The up-move could further get extended, even beyond 1.6000 psychological mark resistance, towards testing the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 1.6050-60 area.

AUDJPY

On 4-hourly chart, the pair seems to extend its near-term recovery mode within a well-established ascending trend-channel. Following a test of the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, the pair reversed some of its gains and is currently hovering around 50-day SMA support, near 0.8620-0.8600 zone. On a sustained weakness below 50-day SMA, the pair seems to extend the reversal back towards testing the very important lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 84.70-60 zone. On the upside, 87.00-87.20 area seems to have emerged as immediate resistance and a sustained move back above 87.00 mark is likely to continue extending support for extension of the near-term recovery move towards testing the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 89.00 mark, also near 100-day SMA resistance.

GBPAUD

Although the pair managed to rebound from 38.2% Fib. retracement level support and move back above 100-day SMA, but it is yet to decisively clear an important resistance near 2.1450-70 region, marking 23.6% Fib. retracement level. Should the pair fail to conquer this immediate resistance and starts drifting lower, it would point towards formation of a bearish Head and Shoulders chart-pattern. The pattern, however, will be completed only once the pair decisively weakens below 2.0800 descending trend-line support, forming neck-line support of the bearish pattern. From current levels, 2.1330-10 horizontal area, followed by 100-day SMA near 2.1135-30 area, seems to act as immediate support levels on the downside. Alternatively, should the pair manages to clear 2.1450-70 strong resistance, thus negating the bearish pattern formation, it seems to immediately rally towards 2.1780-2.1800 area immediate horizontal resistance.

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