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  4. Technical Overview: USDCHF, GBPCHF and AUDCHF

Technical Overview: USDCHF, GBPCHF and AUDCHF

November 26, 2015 11:41

USDCHF

Following its break of seven month old ascending trend-channel resistance, that fueled the USDCHF towards marking fresh five year high, the pair maintained its upward trajectory, as portrayed by the short-term ascending trend-channel, indicating further rise towards 61.8% FE of its January lows to March highs, near 1.0300 round figure mark. However, the mentioned channel's resistance, at 1.0350 presently, can provide pullbacks to the pair prices, break of which can magnify its upward trajectory towards 1.0500 psychological level. On the contrary, the channel support, near 1.0160, is likely immediate downside level for the pair traders to watch, breaking which the broader channel's resistance-line, now acting as support, near 1.0100, becomes an important level for the pair. Should the pair dips below 1.0100 on a closing basis, it can quickly decline to 0.9960 and the 0.9900 levels prior to testing 0.9840-50 horizontal support, including 50-day SMA.

GBPCHF

Even if the GBPCHF failed to surpass 61.8% FE of its May – August up-move, a month old ascending trend-channel favors the pair's upside. From the current level, the pair seems re-aiming for the said FE level around 1.5515-20, breaking which previous highs of 1.5570 and the 1.5600 round figure mark are likely intermediate resistances that it could witness during its up-move to channel resistance-line, currently near 1.5730. Should the pair manage to clear 1.5730 on a closing basis, chances of its rise to 1.5900 area can't be denied. Meanwhile, a daily close below 1.5300 channel support can stop the pair's upward trajectory and pull it back to 1.5100 psychological level. Moreover, further downside below 1.5100 may find it difficult to break 1.5020 – 1.5040 support area, encompassing 50-day and 100-day SMA.

AUDCHF

Sustained break above 200-day SMA triggered AUDCHF rise towards marking the highest levels in six months, also surpassing the eight month old descending trend-line resistance; however, profit booking at the high levels seems restricting the pair's further up-move at present and a daily close below 0.7360, as indicated by the mentioned resistance-turned-support-line, may pull the pair back to 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its March – August downside, near 0.7280. Should the pair dips below 0.7280, it can quickly decline to 0.7190 – 0.7200 support area, including 200-day SMA, while sustained downtrend following 0.7190 break can make the pair vulnerable enough to test 0.7000 psychological magnet. Alternatively, 0.7450-55, including 76.4% Fibo, is likely nearby resistance for the pair, surpassing which can fuel the pair to 0.7530-40 resistance-area. Moreover, successful rise above 0.7540 can strengthen the pair towards 0.7650-70 zone.

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