Technical Overview: NZDUSD, NZDJPY, EURNZD And NZDCHF

December 01, 2015 12:23

NZDUSD

Having bounced from 0.6450-60 horizontal support, the NZDUSD managed to test the highest level in nearly a month; however, eight month old descending trend-line resistance, near 0.6665-70, may limit its further upside, favoring a pullback to 0.6590 immediate support, encompassing 50-day SMA and 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its April – September downside. Should the pair continue observing the descending trend-line and breaks 0.6590, it can re-test 0.6450-60 support, breaking which 0.6380 is likely an intermediate support level before the pair could aim for September lows of 0.6235. Moreover, an extended decline below 0.6235 can make the pair vulnerable enough to test 61.8% FE of the said April – September south-run, around 0.5960-50 area. Meanwhile, a sustained break above 0.6670 can trigger the pair's advance towards 38.2% Fibo, near 0.6800 – 0.6810, surpassing which 0.6900 may act as a buffer during the pair's northward trajectory towards clearing 0.7000 psychological magnet.

NZDJPY

Even if the NZDJPY witnessed a pullback from more than three months old ascending trend-channel resistance during late-September, 80.00 round figure mark, also including the 50-day SMA, support-line of the mentioned channel and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its April – August downside, triggered the pair's current north-move that fueled it towards the highest levels in more than a month. From the present levels, 82.30, encompassing 50% Fibo level, is likely immediate resistance for the pair before it could aim for 83.00 psychological mark while successful encounter of 83.00 is likely to witness 200-day SMA, currently at 84.00, as a strong upside resistance. Given the pair's ability to surpass 84.00, 61.8% Fibo, near 84.70, and the channel resistance, around 85.60, are expected consecutive resistance that the pair could face during its following up-move. On the downside, 81.00 and the mentioned 80.00 become nearby supports that the pair could witness if it reverses back while daily closing below 80.00 can quickly open the door for the pair's downside to 78.50 and then to the 23.6% Fibo, near 77.00 mark. Should the pair keep following the downtrend after breaking 77.00, it becomes vulnerable enough to plunge towards 75.00 support level.

EURNZD

Although four month old descending trend-line resistance forced the EURNZD towards breaking 200-day SMA, the lower trend-line support, connecting August lows to September lows, near 1.5830-25, can help witness a bit of pullback by the pair. However, failure to stop the sellers at 1.5825 may have another opportunity near 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of April – August rally, at 1.5730-25, to trigger the bounce or else the pair becomes weaker enough to test May highs of 1.5350 while 1.5500 mark can act as intermediate support. Alternatively, a daily close above 200-day SMA, presently near 1.6020, is likely fueling the pair towards testing the mentioned four month old descending trend-line resistance of 1.6215-20, breaking which 1.6300 round figure mark, comprising 50% Fibo, and the 1.6550, are likely following resistance that it could witness during the short-covering up-move. If the pair manage to surpass 1.6550 on a closing, chances of its near-term downside gets negated and it can aim for 1.6825-30 resistance-area.

NZDCHF

Irrespective of the NZDCHF's rally towards the highest levels in more than six months, the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its March – August downside, around 0.6830, followed by the 0.6900 round figure mark and the 0.7000 psychological magnet, which also includes three month old ascending trend-channel resistance, can signal brighter chances for the pair's pullback to 0.6700 immediate support. However, the 200-day SMA, near 0.6660 and the channel support, together with the 50% Fibo, near 0.6630, are likely important downside levels that could limit the pair's further decline below 0.6700. Should the pair closes below 0.6700, it can quickly drop to 0.6520 – 0.6500 multiple support area, breaking which 38.2% Fibo, near 0.6430 and the 0.6300 are expected levels that it could witness during sustained south-run. On the upside, a clear break above channel resistance of 0.7000 may propel the pair's rally to 0.7085 – 0.7100 zone, breaking which 0.7200 area becomes good to watch upside region that can control the pair bulls.

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