Technical Overview – NZDUSD, GBPNZD, EURNZD and NZDJPY

September 23, 2015 14:13

NZDUSD

Having reversed from 0.6250-40 horizontal support area, the NZDUSD could mark fresh high of the month during last week; however, five month old descending trend-channel resistance stopped its further advance, making the pair re-test the 0.6250-40 support-zone at present. Should the pair manage to close below 0.6240, the 61.8% FE of its August – September downturn, near 0.6160, followed by the 100% FE, near 0.5980, are likely consecutive levels that the pair could witness during its successive decline. However, channel support, currently near 0.5850, may restrict the pair's additional downside after breaking 0.5980. Meanwhile, a bounce from the current levels can find 0.6330 and 0.6380 as immediate resistances prior to testing the upper line of the mentioned channel, near 0.6405. Given the pair's ability to break 0.6405 on a closing basis, 0.6480 – 0.6500 horizontal resistance-region, encompassing the 50-day SMA, becomes a strong cap to limit its near-term surge while a break of which can quickly fuel the pair's rally towards 0.6735-50 resistance area.

GBPNZD

Barring its August spike, GBPNZD seems following well-established "Rising-Wedge" bearish formation where the 2.4615-20, followed by the pattern resistance, near 2.4800 round figure mark, limit the pair's near-term advance. Though, successful break of 2.4800 can quickly pump the pair's surge to 2.5180 – 2.5200 area, encompassing the August highs and 61.8% Fibo of its October 2008 highs to April 2013 lows. Alternatively, 2.4080 and the 2.4000 become immediate supports for the pair, breaking which formation support and the 50-day SMA near 2.3900 area, quickly followed by the 2.3770-50 zone, including 23.6% Fibo of its January – August advance, together with the 50% Fibo of longer-term decline, are likely important level to determine the pair's downside. If the pair closes below 2.3750, chances of its plunge to 2.3370 and the 2.3100 can't be denied.

EURNZD

Following its sharp rally during late-August, the EURNZD kept following the rectangle formation with 1.8000 – 1.8020 acting as resistance and 1.7250-40 being the support. However, 1.7900 can become an immediate resistance for the pair prior to targeting the 1.8000 area, breaking which 23.6% Fibo of its August rally, near 1.8100 round figure mark, and the 1.8500 level are likely intermediate resistances to the pair prior to its run towards August highs, surpassing 1.8700 area. Alternatively, 1.7500 becomes nearby support for the pair before it could test the formation support while a break of which could extend the pair's downward trajectory towards 61.8% Fibo, near 1.7050, and the 1.6810 – 1.6800 support-zone.

NZDJPY

Alike NZDUSD, the NZDJPY also tests its important support region, 74.80 – 74.60, encompassing 23.6% Fibo of its August decline and multiple lows marked during early September. Should the pair bounces from the current level, 75.80 and the 38.2% Fibo, near 76.30, are likely immediate resistances that it could witness prior to testing a month old descending trend-line, currently at 76.70. On an extended advance following 76.70, the pair becomes capable of targeting 77.50 and the 78.70 resistances during its upward trajectory. On the downside break of 74.60, the 73.50 can stop the pair's ultimate decline to August lows, near 72.30 mark. Moreover, a trade below 72.30 is likely to witness 71.00 psychological mark as strong downside support to limit its further declines.

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