Technical Overview: GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPAUD and GBPNZD

February 02, 2016 11:57

GBPUSD

Even if the GBPUSD managed to bounce from 1.4100 – 1.4080 support-area, as reflected form the short-term ascending trend-channel, pair's downside from 1.5230 portrays a possible "Flag" pattern, a bearish technical formation, which can be confirmed on the break of 1.4160. However, 61.8% FE of its July 2014 – June 2015 downside, around 1.4300, followed by the 1.4200 round figure mark, are likely immediate support levels that the pair might test during its pullback. Given the pair's drop below 1.4160, it becomes more likely to ignore the 1.4100 – 1.4080 zone and can plunge to 1.3850-40 support-region prior to targeting the 2009 lows around 1.3500 mark. Alternatively, the channel resistance, or say the "Flag" upper-line, near 1.4460, might continue acting as nearby resistance for the pair, breaking which the bearish pattern gets negated and the pair can quickly rise to 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its December – January downside, near 1.4525-30, before accelerating the advance to 50% Fibo level, near 1.4655-60. Should the pair maintains its north-run beyond 1.4660, it becomes capable enough to challenge the 1.4800 mark, near the 61.8% Fibo, with 1.4730 being a buffer resistance.

EURGBP

Following the pullback from two month old ascending trend-channel resistance, the EURGBP's near-term up-move seems confined by the short-term descending trend-line, at 0.7615-20 now; however, another upward slanting trend-line, connecting the recent lows, together with the mentioned channel support, near 0.7560 – 0.7540 area, becomes strong downside support for the pair. If the pair keep respecting the trend-channel and breaks 0.7620 immediate resistance, it can easily advance to 0.7690 – 0.7700 region ahead of testing the channel resistance of 0.7785-90, which if broken, can propel the pair's north-run to 0.7900 mark. Moreover, pair's successful up-move beyond 0.7900 can favor its hike towards 0.8050 and the 0.8150 upside levels. Meanwhile, the descending trend-line's ability to keep pushing down the pair prices can force it to break the 0.7540 and test the 0.7420-15 zone while sustained decline below 0.7415, also clearing the 0.7400 mark, can fetch the pair towards 0.7300 re-test.

GBPAUD

While break of immediate descending trend-channel resistance, presently at 2.0410, can quickly propel the GBPAUD towards 2.0580, the three month old descending trend-line, around 2.0780, might hold the pair's near-term up-moves captive. Should it manage to clear the 2.0780, the 2.1000 – 2.1020 area, encompassing the 100-day SMA and five month old downward slanting trend-channel, becomes strong upside resistance for the pair to clear, which if broken, can enable it to target 2.1220-30 zone. On the downside, 2.0100 can act as nearby support for the pair, dipping below confluence of the short-term descending trend-channel and the broader downward slanting trend-channel support, near 1.9940-30, can hold its further downside. If the pair fails to bounce from 1.9930, the 61.8% FE of its September 2015 – January 2016 decline, near 1.9780, might provide intermediate halt to the pair's southward trajectory towards 1.9660-50 support region.

GBPNZD

GBPNZD's bounce from 2.1700 again fetches the pair prices to test the descending trend-channel resistance, which has been restricting its up-move since last five months. Importance of the mentioned channel upper-line has now been magnified as it also accompanies the 50-day SMA and the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its April – August 2015 up-move, near 2.2240-50 area. Should the pair witnesses the pullback from current prices, 2.1830 and the 2.1700 mark are expected nearby supports that it could test while a break below 2.1700 can fetch it to 61.8% Fibo, near 2.1530 and the downward trending line support, near 2.1130. However, further downside by the pair below 2.1130 is likely to be limited by the channel support of 2.0400 mark. If at all the pair manages to clear the strong resistance and closes above 2.2250 mark, it can quickly rise to 200-day SMA, near 2.2700, before targeting the 38.2% Fibo level of 2.2930. Moreover, pair's sustained north-run beyond 2.2930 can strengthen it to expect 2.3100 and the 2.3380 – 2.3400 resistance area.

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