Technical Overview - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF and USDCAD

October 20, 2015 12:45

EURUSD

Barring its unusually sharp up-move on Aug. 24, the pair has repeatedly failed to extend its strength beyond 1.1500 mark. However, on daily chart the pair now seems to have found an intermediate strong support near 1.1300 mark, representing 23.6% Fib. retracement level of May 2014 to March 2015 big fall. Moreover, on 1-hourly chart that pair has now decisively broken-through a descending trend-channel formation, suggesting a possible retest of 1.1400 round figure mark resistance. A follow-up strength beyond 1.1400 mark seems to assist the pair to move back towards 1.1480-1.1500 strong resistance. A subsequent strength above 1.1500 mark now opens room for continuing the near-term up-move towards 1.1600-1.1620 resistance area. Meanwhile on the downside, the descending trend-channel resistance break-point near 1.1350-40 area now seems to act as immediate support. This is followed by a strong support near 1.1300 mark. Failure to hold 1.1300 mark support is likely drag the pair immediately towards 1.1200 round figure mark intermediate support before aiming towards its next major support at 200-day SMA, currently near 1.1130 level.

GBPUSD

After conquering 200-day SMA, the pair is finding some intermediate resistance near 1.5500 psychological mark. A sustained strength above 1.5500 resistance is likely to extend the pair's near-term momentum but is likely to be restricted by a strong resistance confluence near 1.5570-80 zone. This 1.5570-80 resistance confluence comprises of the upper trend-line resistance of a short-term ascending trend-channel formation on daily chart and 38.2% Fib. retracement level of July 2014 to April 2015 depreciating move. However, a decisive strength this strong resistance confluence, marking a break-through the descending trend-channel, seems to pave way for continuing the near-term appreciating move further towards 1.5750-70 horizontal resistance with 1.5650-60 acting as intermediate resistance. Alternatively, should the pair starts reversing from 1.5500 mark resistance and drops below 1.5430-20 immediate support, it could possibly continue drifting lower towards retesting 1.5340-30 important resistance support, marked by 200-day SMA.

USDCHF

After failing to clear a descending trend-line strong resistance and a subsequent weakness back below 23.6% Fib. retracement level of Jan. to Mar. 2015 recovery, dragged the pair back below 0.9500 mark support, nearing the very important 200-day SMA. Sustained weakness below 0.9500 mark has the potential to drag the pair further towards testing its next important support confluence near 0.9380-70 area, comprising of 38.2% Fib. retracement level and an ascending trend-line support. Meanwhile, a move above 0.9500 mark now seems to confront immediate hurdle near 0.9570-75 area, which if cleared is likely to lift the pair back towards 23.6% Fib. retracement level support break-point, now turned resistance, near 0.9660 level. Furthermore, any follow-up strength above 0.9660 should continue to struggle in conquering the descending trend-line resistance, extending from Jan. high through highs tested in Mar., Aug. and Sept., currently near 0.9790-0.9800 mark.

USDCAD

Although the pair broke below 100-day SMA, it managed to rebound from 1.2850-30 support area, marking 38.2% Fib. retracement level of May to Sept. up-swing and also coincides with a short-term ascending trend-line support extending from lows tested in May and June 2015. The rebound lifted the pair back above 100-day SMA and the very important 1.3000 psychological mark. Should the pair manages to sustain its strength above 1.3000 mark, it could possibly make an attempt to test its next resistance near 1.3090-1.3100 mark, representing 23.6% Fib. retracement level. However, should the pair starts giving up its recent gains, it is likely to find immediate support at 100-day SMA, currently near 1.2920-25 area. This is closely followed by a strong support confluence near 1.2850 level, which if broken seems to open room for continuing the pair's near-term corrective move towards its next important support near 1.2680-60 area, marking 50% Fib. retracement level and also nearing the very important 200-day SMA.

Follow me on twitter to discuss latest markets updates @Fx_Haresh

Admirals An all-in-one solution for spending, investing, and managing your money

More than a broker, Admirals is a financial hub, offering a wide range of financial products and services. We make it possible to approach personal finance through an all-in-one solution for investing, spending, and managing money.