Technical Outlook - USDJPY, GBPJPY, EURJPY and CHFJPY

February 04, 2016 11:44

USDJPY

Although the pair rebounded sharply from an important support near 116.00 mark, the momentum failed to assist the pair in clearing the very important 200-day SMA resistance, near 121.45-50 area. The pair has subsequently moved back towards 117.00 mark. Reversal from 200-day SMA resistance area and a subsequent weakness back below 117.00 mark is likely to drag the pair back towards 116.00 mark important support. Further, a decisive break below 116.00 mark has the potential to continue dragging the pair towards testing sub-114.00 mark support representing 23.6% Fib. retracement level of its big up-move from Oct. 2011 lows to multi-year highs touched in May 2015. On the upside, move above 118.00 round figure mark might now confront strong resistance near 118.50 horizontal area. However, a decisive strength above this immediate strong resistance has the potential to lift the pair back towards retesting the very important 200-day SMA resistance near 121.50 region.

GBPJPY

The pair seems to build-on to its near-term recovery within a short-term ascending trend-channel. The pair is currently trading close to the lower trend-line support of the channel, near 172.00 round figure mark. Failure to hold this immediate support is likely to drag the pair back towards retesting 170.00 psychological mark support. Alternatively, a bounce from current support area and a subsequent strength above 172.50 level is likely to boost the pair back beyond 173.50 intermediate horizontal resistance, towards 174.50-60 resistance area. Further, sustained momentum above 174.50 resistance has the potential to continue supporting the prospects of additional near-term recovery for the pair. Above 174.50 resistance, the pair could make an attempt towards testing the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 176.80-177.00 mark, also coinciding with 50-day SMA.

EURJPY

The pair's managed to hold and rebound from the lower trend-line support of a well-established descending trend-channel formation on daily chart. The rebound now seems to confront immediate resistance near 131.80-132.00 mark, representing 38.2% Fib. retracement level of June 2015 to Jan. 2016 downfall. Even if the pair manages to clear this immediate resistance, it is likely to confront resistance at the upper trend-line resistance of the descending channel, currently near 132.50-60 area. A decisive break-through the trend-channel resistance now seems to open room for further near-term recovery towards 50% Fib. retracement level resistance near 133.50-60 area, which could get extended towards testing 200-day SMA strong resistance, currently near 134.30-50 region. Meanwhile on the downside, weakness below 131.00-130.80 area is likely to get extended towards 130.00 psychological mark support, also nearing 23.6% Fib. retracement level. Failure to hold 130.00 mark support, the pair is likely to resume its downward trajectory and head towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 125.60-50 area.

CHFJPY

Even as the pair has managed to bounce from the lower trend-line support of a well-established descending trend-channel, it seems to struggle in registering any meaningful recovery beyond 119.00 round figure mark. Hence, from current levels weakness back below 117.00-116.80 immediate support is likely to force the pair back towards retesting the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 115.50 region. Further, on a sustained trade below the trend-channel support is likely to increase the pair's vulnerability to continue drifting lower towards testing its next major support near 114.00 mark in the near-term. Meanwhile, any attempts of recovery beyond 118.00-20 area might continue to face resistance near 119.00 mark. However, a decisive strength above 119.00 mark is likely to trigger a follow-up buying interest, lifting the pair back towards the very important resistance confluence near 121.50 region, comprising of 100-day SMA and the upper trend-line resistance of the descending trend-channel.

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