Technical Outlook - USDCHF, EURCHF, CADCHF and NZDCHF

January 21, 2016 12:04

USDCHF

Following its reversal from the highest level since Aug. 2010 tested in Nov. 2015, the pair on short-term chart has moved within a narrow trading range, marking a symmetrical triangular formation. The lower ascending trend-line support of the formation currently stands near 0.9985-90 zone and the upper descending trend-line resistance is pegged near 1.0075-80 area. Should the pair manage to break-through the upper trend-line resistance, it seems to resume its medium-term up-trend towards reclaiming 1.0300 mark resistance with 1.0200 round figure mark acting as intermediate resistance. Further, the pair's near-term upward trajectory is likely to get extended towards 61.8% Fib. expansion level resistance near 1.0450 region. Alternatively, a sustained weakness back below 1.0000 psychological mark might now increase the pair's vulnerability to extend its corrective move immediately towards 0.9900 mark representing 38.2% Fib. retracement level of Aug. to Nov. 2015 up-swing. The near-term downfall could further get extended back towards retesting sub-0.9800 level support, near 0.9785-80 area, marking 50% Fib. retracement level.

EURCHF

Holding an important support near 38.2% Fib. retracement level of Apr. to Sept. up-swing, the pair is now moving closer to its Sept. 2015 closing highs strong resistance near 1.0990-1.1000 mark. A clear strength above 1.1000 psychological mark is likely to continue supporting further near-term appreciating move for the pair, possibly towards 1.1130-50 resistance area, marking 61.8% Fib. retracement level of Jan. 2015 big sharp plunge. On the downside, 1.0900 round figure mark seems to protect immediate downside. Weakness below 1.0900 mark, leading to a subsequent break below 50% Fib. retracement level important support near 1.0850 level, is likely to drag the pair back towards testing the very important support near 1.0750 region, held since Aug. 2015.

CADCHF

After testing the lower trend-line support of a short-term descending trend-channel formation on 4-hourly chart, the pair rebounded back and is currently trading close to the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 0.6960-70 area. A decisive break-through this immediate resistance and a subsequent strength back above 0.7000 psychological mark (23.6% Fib. retracement level of it fall from Nov. 2015 highs to low tested in Jan. 2016) might negate possibilities of any further near-term downside for the pair. Beyond 0.7000 mark, the pair might continue recovery towards 38.2% Fib. retracement level resistance near 0.7150-60 area with 0.7085-90 zone acting as intermediate resistance. Alternatively, reversal from current resistance area now seems to find immediate support near 0.6915-0.6900 mark. Failure to hold this immediate support is likely to force the pair back towards retesting 0.6800 round figure mark support before dropping further to test the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 0.6760-50 region.

NZDCHF

Extending its reversal from 50% Fib. retracement level of Jan. to Aug. 2015 downfall, the pair on 1-hourly chart has moved within a short-term descending trend-channel formation. The pair is now reversing from close to an important resistance confluence near 0.6530-50 area, comprising of 200-day SMA and the upper trend-line resistance of the channel. Should the pair extend its reversal and drop below 0.6400 mark support, it is likely to continue dropping towards testing 23.6% Fib. retracement level support near 0.6300 region, also coinciding with the lower trend-line support of the channel. On the upside, 0.6490-0.6500 mark now seems to have emerged as an immediate resistance zone, which is closely followed by resistance at the upper trend-line of the channel, currently near 0.6515-20 area. A sustained strength above 0.6500 mark strong resistance has the potential to lift the pair towards 0.6600 mark, representing 38.2% Fib. retracement level resistance, and the up-move could further get extended towards its next major resistance near 0.6690-0.6700 zone.

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