Technical Outlook – NZDUSD, NZDJPY, GBPNZD and NZDCHF

September 10, 2015 14:30

NZDUSD

During its bounce from 100% FE, the NZDUSD retested the support breakpoint-turned-resistance, near 61.8% FE at 0.6425-30, ahead of RBNZ meeting; however, with the interest rate cut, the pair again struggles near 0.6300 area, indicating 100% FE, at 0.6250, as an immediate support, breaking which 0.6200 round figure mark can become a buffer prior to the pair's plunge to 0.6000 psychological magnet. On the upside, 0.6350 and the 0.6425-30 are likely immediate resistances that the pair have to tackle in order to aim at 0.6530 resistance-zone. Moreover, sustained break of 0.6530 can strengthen the pair towards 0.6650 and the 0.6700 mark in a quick up-move.

NZDJPY

Short-term descending trend-channel seems defining the NZDJPY's immediate down-trend with 74.00 round figure mark being support and the 77.40-50 mentioned as a resistance. However, 23.6% Fibo of its late-July-August decline, near 75.00 mark, is likely immediate support and the 38.2% Fibo, at 76.50, can provide intermediate stops to the pair's trading. Given the pair's ability to break 74.00 on a closing basis, it can quickly plunge to August lows, near 72.30 with 73.00 being a halt. Alternatively, sustained trading above 77.50 can immediately strengthen the pair to aim towards 79.00 and the 80.00 psychological levels on the upside.

GBPNZD

Even after failing to break 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its decline connecting 2008 highs to 2013 lows, near 2.5180, short-term ascending trend-line keep favoring the GBPNZD up-move. However, ascending trend-line, connecting recent highs, near 2.4550, and the 50% Fibo of the said move, also encompassing the said trend-line support, near 2.3750-40 area, can restrict the pair's near-term trading. Should the pair manages to close above 2.4550, the 2.4830-50 area can provide an intermediate resistance to the pair prior to its rally towards August highs and 61.8% Fibo, near 2.5180. On the downside, a close below 2.3740 is likely puling the pair back to 2.3370-50 area, breaking which 2.3000 psychological magnet becomes a strong support to restrict the pair's further decline.

NZDCHF

Having bounced from 61.8% FE of its May – July decline, the NZDCHF failed to break the 50-day SMA, forming a rectangle technical pattern on its D1 chart where in the upside is limited near 0.6300 round figure mark, encompassing 50-day SMA, while on the downside can be restricted by the 61.8% FE, near 0.6060-50 area. Though, comparatively stronger CHF and a downward slating SMAs keep favoring the pair's plunge to 0.5980 and the recent lows near 0.5770. Meanwhile, an upside break of 0.6300 on a closing basis could quickly fuel the pair to 0.6370, 23.6% Fibo, and ultimately to 0.6500 – 0.6510 horizontal mark, that includes 100-day SMA, restricting the pair's near-term advance.

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