Technical Outlook: GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPCHF and GBPNZD

October 13, 2015 14:17

GBPUSD

Lack of clear break above 200-day SMA, coupled with negative UK inflation reading, pulled back the GBPUSD to 1.5200 level, below 50% Fibo of its April – June rally, on Tuesday, indicating a quick test to 1.5150 support on a successive decline. Further, on a close below 1.5150, the pair may find it difficult to break 1.5100 – 1.5085 important horizontal support, also including 61.8% Fibo while inability to hold the 1.5085 can make the pair vulnerable to plunge towards 1.4985-80 multiple support-region. Meanwhile, on an upside break of the 200-day SMA, currently near 1.5325, the pair can rally to 38.2% Fibo, near 1.5400 round figure mark before extending its upward trajectory to 1.5485-90 important resistance-zone that constitutes 100-day SMA and nearly two month old descending trend-line. Given the pair's ability to surpass 1.5490, also surpassing the 1.5500 round figure mark on a closing basis, it becomes capable enough to aim at 23.6% Fibo level, near 1.5610.

EURGBP

On Tuesday, the EURGBP managed to surpass 0.7440-50 important horizontal resistance; however, 50% Fibo of its November 2014 – July 2015 decline, near 0.7485, followed by the 0.7525-30 ascending trend-line resistance, forming part of "Rising-Wedge" bearish formation, are likely important upside levels that the pair needs to clear before targeting 61.8% Fibo, near 0.7615, and 0.7700 round figure mark. Should the pair becomes capable of extending its up-move beyond 0.7700, it can easily look to break 0.7800 level and rest near 0.7825-30 area. On the downside, a close below 0.7440 may pull the pair back to 0.7350-45 support-zone, including two-month old ascending trend-line support and 38.2% Fibo. Though, a clear break of 0.7345 on a closing basis confirms the bearish technical formation, making the pair weaker enough to test 200-day SMA, near 0.7270, 0.7235-35 and the 23.6% Fibo, near 0.7200 round figure mark.

GBPCHF

Having repeatedly failed to break 1.5110-15 horizontal resistance during September, the GBPCHF ticked down below 1.4900 – 1.4890 support area and is currently resting near 1.4600 round figure mark, encompassing 200-day SMA and 50% Fibo of its May – August up-move. Should the pair manage to close below 1.4600 mark, it can quickly test 1.4540 and the 1.4500 supports during its consecutive downturn; however, a break of 1.4500 can make the pair vulnerable to plunge towards 1.4380 downside level. Alternatively, a close above 1.4600 can brighten chances of the pair's pullback to 1.4700 immediate resistance prior to testing 38.2% Fibo, near 1.4800 mark while further up-move beyond 1.4800 are likely being capped by 1.4890 – 1.4900 horizontal resistance region.

GBPNZD

Following its break of 2.3300 – 2.3290 horizontal support-turned-resistance, encompassing 100-day SMA, the GBPNZD aim at testing 2.2660-50 support-region. Should the pair breaks 2.2650 on a closing basis, it can quickly plunge to 2.2300 mark and to 50% Fibo of its January – August rally, near 2.2200 during its following downside. Moreover, a close below 2.2200 can make the pair vulnerable enough to fill the June gap near 2.1750. If the pair reverses from the current levels, 2.3100 can act as strong upside resistance for it to break in order to re-test 2.3290 – 2.3300 resistance area. On a further up-move beyond 2.3300, chances of the pair's near-term decline can be negated and the pair can rally to 2.3600 and 2.3770 prior to aiming 2.4000 mark surpass.

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