Technical Outlook - GBPJPY, GBPCAD, GBPAUD and GBPNZD

GBPJPY

Slowly and gradually the pair seems to attempt a recovery alongside a short-term ascending trend-line support. This ascending trend-line support along with the pair's immediate resistance near 170.00 psychological mark, also coinciding with 23.6% Fib. retracement level of Nov. 2015 to Jan. 2016 downfall, seems to form a bullish Ascending triangle on 4-hourly chart. Hence, a sustained strength above 170.00 mark is likely to assist the pair in extending its near-term recovery trend, initially towards 171.20-30 intermediate horizontal resistance before heading towards 173.10-30 resistance marked by 38.2% Fib. retracement level. On the downside, the short-term ascending trend-line support, currently near 169.30-20 area, might continue to protect immediate downside. Failure to hold this immediate support would negate the bullish triangular formation and is likely to drag the pair immediately towards 167.00 support area.

GBPCAD

On daily chart, the pair seems to have formed a bearish Double-Top chart pattern near 2.0950 level. The pattern, however, is not confirmed until the pair decisively breaks below an important support near 1.9800 horizontal zone. Meanwhile from current levels, 200-day SMA near 1.9950 region closely followed by 38.2% Fib. retracement level of Apr. to Aug. 2015 upswing (1.9900 area), seems to provide immediate downside support. Sustained weakness below these immediate support levels and subsequent drop below 1.9750 support would confirm the bearish pattern, thus opening room for continuation of the pair's downward trajectory in the near-term. On the upside, move above 2.0190-2.0200 mark is likely to confront resistance at 23.6% Fib. retracement level near 2.0300 round figure mark. Strength above 2.0300 mark, leading to momentum above 2.0350 level, has the potential to continue boosting the pair towards an intermediate strong resistance near 2.0550 region.

GBPAUD

Extending its reversal within a well-established descending trend-channel formation on daily chart and a subsequent weakness below 200-day SMA points to continuation of the pair's near-term downward trajectory. The near-term depreciating move is likely to gain momentum below 2.0110-2.0100 immediate horizontal support, which if broken might continue dragging the pair towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 1.9950-30 area. Meanwhile on the upside, 38.2% Fib. retracement level, near 2.0380-2.0400 mark, seems to act as immediate resistance. Sustained move above 2.0400 mark, leading to additional strength beyond 2.0500 mark, might now assist the pair towards retesting the very important 200-day SMA resistance, currently near 2.0790-2.0800 area. The 200-day SMA resistance also nears the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 2.0830-40 area, and hence is likely to cap any further near-term up-move for the pair.

GBPNZD

Even as the pair managed to hold 61.8% Fib. retracement level support of its Apr. to Aug. up-move, it failed to move back above the very important 200-day SMA. Moreover, 50-day SMA has now crossed below the 200-day SMA, forming a bearish death cross. The occurrence of death-cross is pointing towards continuation of the pair's downward trajectory. Hence from current levels, weakness below 2.2000 mark is likely to accelerate towards 2.1750 horizontal support, which could further get extended towards 61.8% Fib. retracement level support near 2.1550-30 area. Further, a decisive weakness below 2.1550 support has the potential to continue dragging the pair towards its next major support near 2.1000 psychological mark. On the upside, 50% Fib. retracement level near 2.2230-50 zone, also nearing 50-day SMA (currently near 2.2280 level) are likely to act as immediate strong resistance levels. Any attempts of clearing these immediate resistance levels are likely to be capped at the very important 200-day SMA, currently near 2.2650-60 area.

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