Technical Outlook: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY And NZDUSD

EURUSD

While corrective moves from 1.1375 fetched the EURUSD down to re-test the early month lows, an upside break above 1.1045-50 area, encompassing the short-term "Falling-Wedge" resistance and the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – February surge, would confirm the bullish technical formation and can propel the pair's rise to 38.2% Fibo, near 1.1130, in a quick move. Should the pair manages to sustain its advance beyond 1.1130, the 1.1200 and the 1.1230, including 23.6% Fibo level, are likely intermediate resistances before it could aim for 1.1300 and the previous highs around 1.1375. Alternatively, the pattern support-line and the 61.8% Fibo, around 1.0960, might continue acting as immediate strong support for the pair, breaking which the bullish formation gets negated which in-turn can fetch the prices to test seven weeks old ascending trend-line support, near 1.0900 round figure mark. If at all the pair fails to respect the trend-line support, it becomes weaker enough to dive towards 1.0800 and the 1.0770 prior to revisiting the January lows around 1.0700.

GBPUSD

Present south-run by the GBPUSD might find it difficult to break nearly six month old descending trend-line support, around 1.3820 now, which if broken can drag the pair prices down to 61.8% FE level of its October 2015 – January 2016 downside, near 1.3770. If the pair continue on its downside below 1.3770, the 1.3650 is likely a buffer support during its plunge to January 2009 lows around 1.3500 psychological mark. However, oversold RSI might trigger a pullback into the pair prices towards 1.4070 immediate resistance, clearing which 1.4220-30 and the 1.4400, are consecutive upside levels that pair traders might have to look at. Should the pair clears the 1.4400 on a closing basis, the 50-day SMA, currently around 1.4500 mark, becomes a strong resistance for the pair to break, surpassing which can propel its rise to 1.4670-80 area.

USDJPY

Although short-term descending trend-channel keep favoring USDJPY downside, support-line of the channel, at 111.30 now, quickly followed by the early month lows around 111.00, might give rise to the pair's short-covering moves towards 112.60-65 zone, including the channel resistance and the descending trend-line stretched from early February month. If the pair manages to clear the 112.65 on a closing basis, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its current month slide, at 113.00, and the 113.80, are expected following resistances that it could witness before reaching the 115.00 mark. Should the pair closes above 115.00, it becomes capable enough to rise towards 50% Fibo, near 115.50, and then to the 61.8% Fibo, near 116.50. Meanwhile, pair's drop below 111.00 opens the door for its southward trajectory towards 61.8% FE of the mentioned move, around 109.20.

NZDUSD

On Wednesday, the NZDUSD carried forward the previous day's losses and marked a new low of the week; though, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its April 2014 – September 2015 downside, also including the short-term ascending trend-channel support, near 0.6590-85, could confine the pair's immediate decline. If the pair closes below 0.6585, it can swiftly drop to 0.6500 mark before resting around the 0.6430-20 horizontal-line. Given the pair's successive break of 0.6420, chances of its downside to 0.6300 and the September 2015 lows of 0.6236, can't be denied. On the upside, pair's pullback from the current levels may witness 0.6740 as nearby resistance, clearing which 38.2% Fibo, near 0.6815, could offer an intermediate halt to the prices before propelling the pair to witness 0.6890 – 0.6900 important resistance-confluence, encompassing channel resistance and the horizontal-line. Given the pair's ability to surpass 0.6900 mark, it can quickly rise to 0.7015-20 and the 0.7100 area.

Follow me on twitter to discuss latest markets events @Fx_Anil