Technical Outlook: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD and USDCHF

October 27, 2015 12:02

EURUSD

Failure to break 1.1470-90 important horizontal resistance, coupled with dovish comments from ECB President, dragged down the EURUSD towards breaking 200-day SMA and seven month old ascending trend-line support during last week. However, the pair bounced back from its 1.1000 round figure mark on Monday and is currently struggling to regain the trend-line support at 1.1060. Should the pair manage to close above 1.1060, the recent break can be negated; though, 200-day SMA, presently near 1.1125-30, can limit its immediate advance. On a further up-move beyond 1.1130, the pair can quickly rise to 38.2% Fibo of its December 2014 – March 2015 decline, near 1.1250, and to the 1.1390 – 1.1400 resistance region before targeting the 1.1470-90 re-test. Given the pair's ability to surpass 1.1490, also tick above 1.1500, chances of its rally towards 1.1630 and to the 61.8% Fibo, near 1.1730 can't be denied. Meanwhile, 1.1000 can act as an immediate downside support for the pair, breaking which 23.6% Fibo, near 1.0940, and the 1.0830-20 horizontal mark, are likely consecutive levels that the pair could witness during its successive decline. Moreover, inability to hold 1.0820 could make the pair vulnerable enough to plunge towards 1.0600 support-area.

GBPUSD

Even if the GBPUSD decisively strengthened above 200-day SMA, the follow-up advance found it difficult to break the 100-day SMA, also including short-term descending trend-line resistance, near 1.5500 round figure mark. The pair currently trades near 200-day SMA at 1.5330 and a closing break of the same can quickly pull it back to 50% Fibo of its April – June rise, near 1.5250, prior to witnessing 1.5170 and the 1.5090 – 1.5100 horizontal support. However, pair's consecutive declines below 1.5090 are likely to be restricted by the four month old descending trend-channel support, near 1.5000. Alternatively, 38.2% Fibo, near 1.5400, followed by the 1.5500 resistance, encompassing 100-day SMA and said trend-line, are likely nearby resistances that the pair could witness before rallying to the 1.5530 channel resistance. Given the pair's ability to close above 1.5530, it can swiftly rise to 23.6% Fibo, near 1.5610, prior to targeting 1.5700 and the August high of 1.5820 level.

USDCAD

Ever since the USDCAD broke above 1.3070 horizontal resistance-turned-support-mark, also including the 38.2% Fibo of its September – October decline, the pair kept trading northwards, with due respect to short-term ascending trend-channel; however, 61.8% Fibo, near 1.3220, can limit the pair's immediate advance. Should the pair breaks above 1.3220, it can easily test the 1.3265-70, channel resistance area, breaking which 76.4% Fibo, near 1.3300 round figure mark, and 1.3355-60, are likely consecutive upside resistances that it could witness during sustained up-move. On the downside, 50% Fibo level at 1.3140 and the channel support, near 1.3100 psychological level, are likely supports to restrict the pair's near-term decline. Given the pair's inability to hold 1.3100 on a closing basis, the 1.3070 horizontal support again comes into picture to save the pair while a closing break of which can make the pair vulnerable enough to plunge towards 23.6% Fibo, near 1.2980-75.

USDCHF

Following its bounce from 200-day SMA, presently near 0.9530, the USDCHF managed to register successful rise. On Monday, the pair surpassed its year-long descending trend-line resistance and it now seems rallying towards the 0.9890 – 0.9900 horizontal resistance region, encompassing August highs. Should it breaks the mentioned 0.9900 level on a closing basis chances of its rally to 1.000 psychological magnet, followed by the March highs of 1.0130, can't be denied. However, a pullback from the current level can quickly witness the said resistance-turned-support-line, near 0.9770, and the 76.4% Fibo of its January plunge, near 0.9740. If the pair's pullback stretched longer and breaks 0.9740, the recent break gets negated and the pair can immediately plunge to 0.9650 and to the 0.9530, including 200-day SMA.

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