Technical Outlook - EURCHF, CHFJPY, AUDCHF and GBPCHF

October 08, 2015 13:58

EURCHF

On 4-hourly chart, the pair remains within an ascending trend-channel formation but now seems to face difficulty in clearing a short-term descending trend-line resistance near 1.0950-60 area. Sustained strength above this immediate resistance is likely to reaffirm the pair's near-term move within the ascending trend-channel and thus is likely to lift the pair immediately towards reclaiming 1.1000 psychological mark resistance before attempting a further up-move towards testing the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 1.1130 level. This 1.1130 level resistance also coincides with 61.8% Fib. retracement level of the pair's serious fall on Jan. 15. However, should the pair fails to conquer its immediate resistance and extends its reversal it is likely to find support at the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 1.0870-60 zone, also nearing 50% Fib. retracement level. Failure to hold this immediate strong support, marking an end of the near-term ascending trend, the pair could sliding towards retesting Aug. 19-20 lows support near 1.0730-10 area. The downfall could further get extended towards the pair's next major support confluence near 1.0600 mark, which comprises of 200-day SMA and 38.2% Fib. retracement level.

CHFJPY

The pair continues to move within a well-established descending trend-channel formation on daily chart with the upper trend-line of the channel, near 124.20-40 area, acting as immediate resistance. A sustained move above this immediate resistance, leading to a move above 125.00 mark resistance, would mark a clear break above the descending channel. This would eventually pave way for continuing the near-term recovery trend towards its next major resistance near 128.50-70 region, with 126.00 and 127.00 round figure marks acting as intermediate resistance levels. Alternatively, reversal from the upper trend-line resistance and a subsequent drop back below 123.00 mark immediate support is likely to drag the pair back towards its immediate strong support near 122.10-122.00 mark. Failure to hold 122.00 mark support now seems to trigger resumption of the pair's downward trajectory, initially towards March 2015 lows support near 120.00 psychological mark and eventually towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel.

AUDCHF

On 4-hourly chart, the pair has been steadily moving higher within a short-term ascending trend-channel formation and is currently witnessing reversal from the upper trend-line resistance of the channel. The upper trend-line resistance of the channel, near 0.7000-0.7020 area, also coincides with 61.8% Fib. retracement level of the pair's down-swing from August high to lows. From current levels, 0.6900 mark, nearing 50% Fib. retracement level, seems to act as immediate support. Drop below 0.6900 mark is likely to drag the pair further towards 38.2% Fib. retracement level intermediate support near 0.6830-25 area before heading towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 0.6775 region. Meanwhile, strength above 0.7000 round figure mark resistance might continue to face strong resistance at the upper trend-line of the channel, currently near 0.7040-50 area, also coinciding with 100-day SMA. A decisive strength above 100-day SMA should provide the required momentum to lift the pair back towards testing August high resistance near 0.7300 mark.

GBPCHF

Although the pair seems to have held and rebound from an important horizontal support near 1.4670-50 area, it is yet to clear a short-term descending trend-channel resistance near 1.4990-1.5000 psychological mark. The combination of the horizontal support and descending trend-line resistance now seems to constitute towards a bearish descending triangular formation on daily chart. From current levels, however, the pair is likely to find immediate support near 1.4750 level, which if broken seems to drag the pair back towards 1.4650 important horizontal support. A decisive break below 1.4650 support and a subsequent weakness below the very important 200-day SMA, currently near 1.4600 mark, the pair should confirm the bearish triangular formation indicating a further downward pressure in the near-term. On the upside, 1.4900 mark now seems to have emerged as immediate resistance. This is followed by the very important descending trend-line resistance near 1.5000 mark and only after a decisive strength above the descending trend-line resistance, the pair might negate the near-term bearish expectations.

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