Technical Outlook - CHF Pairs

September 11, 2015 14:05

USDCHF

Following its strength above 200-day SMA and a subsequent move above a near-term consolidation range, the pair once again is consolidating around a descending trend-line resistance near 0.9800-20 area. The descending trend-line extends from Jan. high through highs tested in March and in August and hence a decisive strength above this immediate resistance now seems to pave way for continuing the pair's near-term upward trajectory towards reclaiming parity mark. However, failure to conquer this immediate resistance and reversal back below 0.9700-0.9680 immediate support might force the pair back towards testing 200-day SMA support, currently near 0.9540-30 zone. Further, a decisive weakness back below 200-day SMA has the potential to continue exerting near-term pressure on the pair towards retesting the very important short-term ascending trend-line support near 0.9300 mark.

EURCHF

After sustaining its strength above 200-day SMA and subsequently clearing 61.8% Fib. expansion level resistance near 1.0900 level, the pair on Friday reclaimed 1.1000 mark for the first time since Jan. 15. From current levels the pair seems more likely to extend its near-term upward trajectory towards 1.1130 level, marking 61.8% Fib. retracement level resistance of it's big fall on Jan. 15. Meanwhile on the downside, 61.8% Fib. expansion level resistance break-point near 1.0920-1.0900 zone now seems to protect immediate downside. Failure to hold this immediate support, leading to a subsequent weakness below 50% Fib. retracement level support near 1.0860-50 area, seems to drag the pair back towards testing 200-day SMA, currently near 1.0730-20 region.

CHFJPY

The pair remains within a well-established down-trend, as depicted by formation of a descending trend-channel on daily chart. After testing the lower trend-line support the pair is witnessing a bounce back from near-term oversold conditions. From current levels, bounce above 124.00 mark is likely to confront strong resistance at its previous strong support turned resistance area near 125.00 mark. However, should the pair manage to conquer 125.00 mark, it seems more likely to further extend the bounce towards testing another important resistance confluence near 126.50-70 zone, comprising of the upper trend-line resistance of the channel and 200-day SMA. Meanwhile on the downside, weakness below 123.00 round figure mark support is likely to find strong support near 122.20-122.00 horizontal support area. Failure to hold this 122.00 mark support seems to exert further near-term pressure on the pair towards retesting the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 121.10-121.00 mark.

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