Technical Check: Important CAD Pairs

February 11, 2016 12:17

USDCAD

USDCAD's downside from 1.4690 seems successfully stopped by the 100-day EMA during last Thursday; however, 1.4080 – 1.4100 area, including the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its June 2015 – January 2016 up-move, can hold the pair's immediate advance. Should the pair manage to clear the 1.4100 on a closing basis, fresh buying can propel the pair towards 1.4300 area, which if broken might enable the pair to target 1.4400 and the 1.4590 – 1.4600 resistance region prior to re-testing the 1.4690 – 1.4700 zone. On the downside, 1.3800 and the 38.2% Fibo level near 1.3700, quickly followed by the 100-day EMA, near 1.3660, are likely important support level that the pair traders should watch for. If the pair drops below 1.3660, ascending trend-line resistance, stretched from June 2015, near 1.3500, becomes an important support for the pair. Given the pair's inability to hold the 1.3500 trend-line support, it becomes weaker enough to test sub-1.3300 zone.

EURCAD

Following its reversal from 50-day EMA, the EURCAD is more likely to march towards January highs of 1.6110, breaking which fourteen month old ascending trend-line resistance, around 1.6200, followed by the 61.8% FE of its December 2015 – January 2016 upside, near 1.6400, are consecutive upside resistances that the pair might aim for. Given the extended rise beyond 1.6400, the pair can witness 1.6700 area as a follow-on resistance. Alternatively, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of the said advance, near 1.5610, offers nearby support to the pair, clearing which it could dip to 1.5400; though, pair's further downside below 1.5400 needs to clear the 38.2% Fibo level of 1.5300 and the 50-day EMA number, 1.5260, in order to stretch its southward trajectory towards 1.5050 and the 1.4930 – 1.4900 broad support area.

GBPCAD

Even if the GBPCAD bounced-off from the 1.9800 – 1.9860 broad support region, pair's immediate upside seems hindered by the 100-day EMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its April – August 2015 rally, around 2.0270 – 2.0300. If the pair manages to clear the said resistance region, the 2.0360 and the 2.0560 are likely consecutive upside numbers that it should witness. Moreover, pair's sustained up-move beyond 2.0560 can propel it towards 2.0800 mark. Meanwhile, pair's pullback from the current level can fetch it to 2.0120 immediate support, breaking which 2.0000 psychological magnet and the 1.9900 may provide rest to the pair's extended south-run while pair's break of 1.9900 could find multiple supports between the 1.9800 – 1.9860 region. Should the pair drops decisively below 1.9800, it becomes vulnerable enough to plunge towards 50% Fibo level of 1.9550.

CADCHF

Continuing on its slide since reversing form 0.7340, the CADCHF seems heading down to test the January lows around 0.6800 mark with 0.6890 being an intermediate support level. If the pair continues on its south-move below 0.6800, 61.8% FE of its November 2015 – January 2016 downside, near 0.6760, might provide a small support during the pair's decline towards aiming the 0.6600 area. On the upside, 0.6980, followed by the 23.6% Fibo, near 0.7030, and the 0.7070, are likely immediate resistances that the pair needs to tackle before it could rally to 38.2% Fibo level of 0.7160 and the 0.7210 mark. However, pair's further up-moves beyond 0.7210 are likely to be capped by the 50% Fibo level of 0.7270 and the 0.7300 round figure mark, which also encompasses the descending trend-line resistance.

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