Technical Check - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY

October 06, 2015 13:27

EURUSD

The near-term movement of the pair seems to be contained within a short-term ascending trend-channel formation on daily chart. The pair, however, now seems to face difficulty in clearing a short-term descending trend-line resistance near 1.1300 mark and is hovering around 200-day SMA region. Should the pair manage to clear 1.1300 mark resistance, it is likely to immediately dart towards its next strong resistance near 1.1450 region. Alternatively, sustained weakness below 200-day SMA, currently near 1.1150 level, the pair could possibly drift towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 1.1050-40 area. In the broader context, the near-term ascending trend-channel when considered with the pair's sharp fall from near 1.4000 mark seems to constitute towards formation of a bearish Flag chart-pattern and hence a decisive break below the lower trend-line support of the channel might now trigger a fresh leg of weakness for the pair.

GBPUSD

The pair's recovery from 1.5100 round figure mark, nearing 61.8% Fib. retracement level support of April to June up-swing, is now facing immediate resistance at 50% Fib. retracement level near 1.5240-50 area. Recovery beyond 1.5240-50 resistance is likely to be capped at the very important 200-day SMA resistance, currently near 1.5320-30 area. Meanwhile, 61.8% Fib. retracement level near 1.5100-1.5080 area might continue providing immediate support on the downside. A decisive break below 1.5100 mark support is likely to increase the pair's vulnerability to continue drifting lower towards testing the very important psychological mark support near 1.5000 region. Considering that the pair has repeated failed to sustain its strength above 200-day SMA and a subsequent weakness below 1.5100 mark support is likely to confirm continuation of the pair's near-term weakening trend.

USDCHF

Although the pair seems to face strong hurdle in clearing a descending trend-line resistance extending from Jan. high through highs tested in March, August and September, it now seems to move along a short-term ascending trend-line support. The ascending trend-line support, currently near 0.9660 level, also coincides with 23.6% Fib. retracement level of Jan. low March highs up-move. Weakness below this immediate support confluence seems to reaffirm strong headwind for the pair marked by the descending trend-line resistance, currently near 0.9810-20 area. A decisive break below 0.9660 level support is likely to drag the pair back towards 0.9520 intermediate support before heading towards 0.9400-0.9380 support area, marked by 38.2% Fib. retracement level. Meanwhile, a sustained strength above 0.9810-20 strong resistance now seems to trigger a sharp up-move immediately towards reclaiming the parity mark.

USDJPY

Following it sharp drop in late August, the pair seems to have moved within a short-term trading range as depicted by a Rectangular formation on 4-hourly chart. The current consolidation, however, is happening below the very important 200-day SMA, suggesting higher possibilities of break on the downside. Hence, a decisive break below the lower end of the trading range support near 118.50 region seems to reaffirm expectations of extension of the pair's near-term corrective move, back towards retesting August lows support near 116.20-116.00 zone. Alternatively, decisive up-move beyond the top end of trading range resistance, near 121.20-30 area might negate any near-term bearish expectations and boost the pair back towards 123.00 mark intermediate resistance, before testing 123.80-124.00 mark strong resistance.

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