Technical Check - EURCHF, CHFJPY, GBPCHF and AUDCHF

October 21, 2015 13:02

EURCHF

On short-term chart, the pair decisively weakened below an important support confluence near 1.0880 region, comprising of the lower trend-line support of a short-term ascending trend-channel formation and 50-day SMA support. Although, the pair seems to have found some intermediate support near 1.0800 round figure mark, but considering its break-down below an important support, it seems vulnerable to extend its near-term weakness towards testing 100-day SMA support, currently near 1.0700 level. On the upside, 1.0880-1.0900 zone, marking an important support break-point, now seems to restrict immediate upside for the pair. Failure to clear this immediate hurdle and a subsequent break below 1.0800 round figure mark support is likely to confirm the near-term bearish move for the pair. However, should the pair manage to conquer this immediate support turned resistance area, it seems to resume its recovery trend back towards 1.0990-1.1000 recent daily closing highs resistance, which could further get extended towards 1.1100-1.1120 resistance area in the near-term.

CHFJPY

Although the pair has decisively moved above a descending trend-channel formation on daily chart and has subsequently strengthened above 124.80-125.00 mark strong resistance confluence, comprising of 23.6% Fib. retracement level of June to Sept. down-fall and 50-day SMA, it has failed to gain momentum beyond 126.00 mark intermediate resistance. However, considering the break-out the pair seems more likely to extend its near-term recovery trend beyond 126.00 mark resistance towards testing its next major resistance near 128.40-50 area, nearing 50% Fib. retracement level. 38.2% Fib. retracement level, near 127.00 mark also seems to provide some intermediate resistance on the upside. Alternatively, should the pair decisively drops back below an important resistance confluence, turned immediate support, near 124.80-70 area, it seems to drift back towards retesting the descending channel break point (now turned support) near 123.50 level.

GBPCHF

The pair continues to hold and rebound from the very important 200-day SMA support near 1.4600 mark, also coinciding with 50% Fib. retracement level of May to August up-swing. It would be prudent to see if the repeated rebounds from an important support helps the pair to surpass a descending trend-line strong resistance, currently near 1.4880-1.4900 zone. A decisive break-through this immediate strong resistance might negate any near-term bearish expectations for the pair, immediately boosting the pair to reclaim 1.5000 psychological mark resistance, also coinciding with 23.6% Fib. retracement level. Meanwhile, 1.4700 mark seems to provide immediate downside support for the pair, which is followed by 1.4600 mark strong support. Failure to surpass immediate strong resistance and a subsequent break below a strong support now seems to trigger an accelerated downfall towards 61.8% Fib. retracement level support, near 1.4420-1.4400 mark.

AUDCHF

The pair failed to sustain its strength above 100-day SMA and started reversing from an important resistance confluence near 0.7090-0.7100 area, comprising of 50% Fib. retracement level of its fall from April to August 2015 and the upper trend-line resistance of a short-term ascending trend-channel formation on daily chart. Reversal from a strong resistance confluence dragged the pair back below 50-day SMA, towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, near 0.6860-50 area. Should the pair fail to bounce from the current support area, it is likely to immediately drop towards 0.6800 mark support, representing 23.6% Fib. retracement level, before heading towards testing its next major support near 0.6750 level. On the upside, 38.2% Fib. retracement level, near 0.6965-70 zone, seems to have emerged as immediate resistance. Although, up-move beyond this immediate resistance is likely to confront resistance at 100-day SMA region, currently near 0.7020 level, but would still reinforce near-term movement within the ascending trend-channel formation. Hence, a sustained move above 0.7000 mark seems to continue supporting further near-term up-move, initially towards 0.7100 mark resistance (50% Fib. retracement level) and eventually towards testing the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 0.7130 region.

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