GBPCAD, CADJPY, CADCHF and AUDCAD: Technical Update

GBPCAD

Even if the descending trend-line resistance, forming part of "Falling-Wedge" bullish technical pattern, pulled the GBPCAD towards three month lows, the 1.9750-45 horizontal support, including 38.2% Fibo of its January – August rally and lower line of the formation, helped the pair's bounce toward 1.9970-80 area. From the current level, 2.0075-80 is likely an immediate resistance that it could test prior to re-visiting the formation resistance, coupled with the 23.6% Fibo, near 2.0200 mark. Should the pair manage to break 2.0200 on a closing basis, chances of its quick rally towards 2.0550 can't be denied while 2.0350 can act as an intermediate resistance. Alternatively, 1.9900 and 1.9800 may limit the pair's near-term decline before it could test the 1.9750-45 support area. Moreover, a break below 1.9750 can witness 1.9690, formation support, as a strong downside level restricting its decline, dipping below the same can make the pair vulnerable to plunge towards 1.9500 and the 1.9365-70 support level, including 50% Fibo and 200-day SMA.

CADJPY

CADJPY's effort to break the six week old 88.70 – 92.50 trading range were capped by the three month old descending trend-line resistance, presently near 93.00 round figure mark, pulling it back to the mentioned range area. The pair currently struggles near 50-day SMA, with 91.40, being immediate support, breaking which 23.6% Fibo of June – August downturn, near 90.60, and the 90.00 psychological magnet, are likely consecutive supports for the pair before it could re-test the 88.70 mark. Should the pair fails to hold the 88.70, it can quickly plunge to August lows near 87.40. On the upside, 92.50, the 38.2% Fibo, near 92.65 and the trend-line resistance, near 93.00 are likely important resistances that could restrict the pair's near-term advance while a successful break above 93.00 on a closing basis can trigger the pair's rally towards 50% Fibo, near 94.30.

CADCHF

Following its failure to break five month old descending trend-line resistance, the CADCHF's declines were limited by the 61.8% Fibo of January - March advance and the short-term ascending trend-line, connecting lows marked in August and September. As the pair recently bounced from the support, the 0.7400 area is likely providing immediate resistance prior to its run towards 50% Fibo, at 0.7430 and the mentioned trend-line resistance, at 0.7445-50 zone. If the pair manage to break 0.7450, it can immediately rise to 0.7500 round figure mark prior to visiting the 200-day SMA, near 0.7530 and the 38.2% Fibo, near 0.7550. Moreover, a close above 0.7550-60 can enable the pair to rally towards 0.7625-30 resistance region. On the downside, the said support-line, currently at 0.7315, is likely strong support for the pair, breaking which it is expected to plunge towards 0.7260 and the 0.7205 – 0.7200 horizontal support area. Should the pair fails to withstand near 0.7200, it can extend the downward trajectory towards August lows, near 0.6940 and then to the late-January lows, near 0.6900 round figure mark.

AUDCAD

During its recovery rally from 0.9250-45 horizontal support, the AUDCAD managed to break the 0.9415 – 0.9430 horizontal mark; however, the 200-day SMA, near 0.9590 at present, capped the pair's following up-move, making it currently trade near the 0.9415 – 0.9430 resistance-turned-support-zone. On the upside, 0.9505, encompassing the 38.2% Fibo of its January – September decline, and the 200-day SMA can limit the pair's near-term advance, breaking which the pair becomes capable enough to rally towards 0.9680 and the 61.8% Fibo, at 0.9730, resistance levels before surpassing the 0.9800 mark. Meanwhile, a close below 0.9415 can quickly test 23.6% Fibo, near 0.9370 and then the 0.9300 before re-testing the 0.9250-45 support. Given the pair's inability to hold 0.9245, the pair can aim for September lows, near 0.9150 with 0.9200 being intermediate support.

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