AUDUSD, EURAUD, AUDCAD and AUDJPY: Technical Outlook

October 07, 2015 13:56

AUDUSD

Break of five month old descending trend-line resistance triggered the AUDUSD rally towards the highest levels in nearly a month; however, short-term downward slanting line, coupled with 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – September decline, near 0.7215-20, seems currently holding the pair's immediate advance. Should it manage to close above 0.7220, the 0.7280, indicating September highs, can provide an intermediate resistance to the pair during its successive up-move towards 0.7380-85 important resistance, including 100-day SMA and 38.2% Fibo. Moreover, sustained break of 0.7385 can make the pair capable enough to target 50% Fibo, near 0.7525-30. Given the pair fails to break 0.7220, the 0.7160-50 can be an immediate support, breaking which 0.7085-90 and 0.7030 are likely downside levels that it can witness during further decline. However, 0.6940-30 and the 0.6900 are likely strong supports that could restrict the pair's additional downside.

EURAUD

Following its reversal from 1.6250 range resistance, the EURAUD currently trades near a month old rectangle formation support, also testing the 50-day SMA; Although, a close below 1.5560-50 becomes necessary for the pair to aim towards 1.5470 and 1.5400 supports, as indicated by the 38.2% Fibo of its April – August rally and more than a five month old ascending trend-line respectively. However, 1.5270-80 horizontal mark can limit the pair's further decline following successive southward journey below 1.5400. Alternatively, a daily close above 1.5650 immediate resistance can quickly fuel the pair towards 1.5770-75 and to the 23.6% Fibo, near 1.5900 round figure mark. Moreover, on a clear break of 1.5900, the pair may witness 1.6000 and 1.6150 as follow-on resistance prior to re-visiting the range resistance, near 1.6250.

AUDCAD

Failure to break 0.9245-40 horizontal support quickly fueled the AUDCAD to near 0.9400 round figure mark; though, 0.9420-30 area, including important horizontal support-turned-resistance and two month old descending trend-line, can limit the pair's further advances. Should the pair manage to close above 0.9430, chances of its rally to 0.9500 – 0.9510, including 100-day SMA and 38.2% Fibo of its January – September decline, can't be denied. On a sustained break of 0.9510, the 0.9550 and the 0.9650 are likely upside levels that the pair can mark. Meanwhile, a daily close below 0.9350 can pull the pair back to 0.9300 and the 0.9245-40 support levels, breaking which the pair become vulnerable to re-test September lows, near 0.9150.

AUDJPY

Even if the AUDJPY managed to break more than a month old symmetrical triangle resistance, near 86.30, the 86.90 – 87.10 horizontal resistance could limit further up-side by the pair, pulling it back towards 86.00 re-test, encompassing 38.2% Fibo of August decline. However, pair's ability to break 87.10 on a closing basis, also surpassing the 50% Fibo, near 87.35, can quickly fuel its rally towards 88.60 and the 89.30 resistance levels with 87.90 being intermediate stop. On the downside, a close below 86.00 is likely extending the pair's decline to 85.00 psychological level, breaking which 23.6% Fibo, near 84.50 and the triangle support, presently at 83.30, are likely consecutive supports that it could witness prior to re-visiting the August lows, near 82.00 round figure mark.

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